What is Machine Learning?
Supervised, unsupervised, reinforcement, when ML works and when it doesn't
Learning From Examples
Tell a rule you write by hand apart from a pattern a model learns from examples, then label the features, target, and prediction in a real data table.
Types of Machine Learning
Sort a problem into supervised, unsupervised, or reinforcement learning by reading the data it holds, an answer column, no answers, or a reward earned by acting.
How Models Learn
Trace one pass of the training loop, guess, measure the error, nudge the weight, then explain why more passes stop helping and how the step size can wreck or rescue a run, all with zero math.
When ML Works (and When It Doesn't)
Decide whether a problem fits a hand-written rule or a trained model by running one four-condition test, then inventory the enough, labeled, representative data you'd need before any code.
Supervised Learning
Regression, classification, trees, intuition not derivation
Regression, Predicting Numbers
Read a number off a fitted line, then tell when a straight line is too simple for the data and when a prediction has strayed past the range you measured.
Classification, Predicting Categories
Draw the boundary that separates two categories, read a case's confidence from how far it sits from that line, and set the cut-off that decides which mistakes the model makes.
Trees & Ensembles
Trace a loan application down a tree's yes/no branches to a verdict, then explain why a forest of trees that vote beats any single tree that memorized its examples.
Overfitting & Underfitting
Diagnose a model that memorized its training data from the gap between its training and test scores, tell that failure apart from a model too simple to catch the pattern, and pull an overfit model back with more data, a simpler model, or regularization.
Evaluation & Model Selection
Why accuracy misleads and how to choose the right model
Accuracy & Its Limits
Split one accuracy score into a confusion matrix's four cells, and weigh a false alarm against a missed case to see why a 99%-accurate model can be useless on rare events.
Comparing & Selecting Models
Compare two models fairly by rotating the held-out slice instead of trusting one lucky split, keep the simpler model when scores tie, and seal the test set so checking it never inflates the verdict.
Bias & the Limits of a Model
Trace a model's unfair tilt back to the skew in its training data, and judge when a confident prediction has not earned your trust.