skipnothing/ML Foundations
UNIT 03

Supervised Learning

Regression, classification, trees, intuition not derivation

The most common type of ML in practice. This unit builds intuition for the major algorithms without any equations.

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#7

Regression, Predicting Numbers

Read a predicted number off a line fitted to your data, catch when a straight line is the wrong shape for a curve, and distrust any prediction pushed past the range you measured.

A property site quotes the house on Maple Street at `$412,000`, and no agent typed that figure. A line drawn through thousands of past sales took the home's size and read the price straight off it.

10 min
#8

Classification, Predicting Categories

Sort a case into one of two categories by which side of a line it falls on, read its confidence off how far it sits from that line, and move the cut-off to trade wrongly-flagged real mail against spam let through.

A spam filter never answers `0.72`; it answers spam or not-spam, a name from a short list. The same filter also knows how sure it is, and hands you a dial for which wrong picks you can live with.

10 min
#9

Trees & Ensembles

Walk a loan application down a tree's yes/no branches to its verdict, see how one flipped answer reroutes it to the opposite call, and explain why a forest of disagreeing trees that vote beats a single tree that swings with its training data.

A loan officer never runs one formula; they ask `income > 50000?`, then a follow-up, then another, each answer narrowing toward approve or deny. A hundred officers who each ask different questions and pool their calls beat any single one.

12 min
#10

Overfitting & Underfitting

Spot an overfit model by the gap between its training and test scores, tell that apart from a too-simple model weak on both, and close the gap with more data, a simpler model, or regularization.

A pricing model reports `train_score = 1.00`, a flawless run on every house it studied, so the team ships it. On a hundred houses it never saw, it misses nearly every price; the perfect number was the warning.

10 min
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