skipnothing/ML Foundations
UNIT 03

Supervised Learning

Regression, classification, trees, intuition not derivation

The most common type of ML in practice. This unit builds intuition for the major algorithms without any equations.

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#7

Regression, Predicting Numbers

Read a number off a fitted line, then tell when a straight line is too simple for the data and when a prediction has strayed past the range you measured.

Feed a model a stack of past house sales, then ask what a 2,000-square-foot place should cost. It answers $410k, a price that appears nowhere in the data, by reading the trend those sales trace out.

10 min
#8

Classification, Predicting Categories

Draw the boundary that separates two categories, read a case's confidence from how far it sits from that line, and set the cut-off that decides which mistakes the model makes.

A new email hits your inbox, and the model will not hand back a number this time. It picks one bucket, `spam` or `not spam`, and commits: a real message sorted the wrong way rots unseen in the junk folder.

10 min
#9

Trees & Ensembles

Trace a loan application down a tree's yes/no branches to a verdict, then explain why a forest of trees that vote beats any single tree that memorized its examples.

A loan officer never weighs your whole life at once: they fire one question, `income > 50000?`, then the next, then the next, until a yes/no chain lands on approve or deny. A model can decide the very same way.

12 min
#10

Overfitting & Underfitting

Diagnose a model that memorized its training data from the gap between its training and test scores, tell that failure apart from a model too simple to catch the pattern, and pull an overfit model back with more data, a simpler model, or regularization.

A spam filter aces every email in its training folder, posts `99% correct`, then meets your inbox and waves the junk through while quarantining your boss: it learned those exact emails, not what spam actually looks like.

10 min
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